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The election is 213 days from today.. poll ...

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tomsingh	The election is 213 days from today.. poll ...	Lead	[-]
Posts: 177 Apr 7 12 11:58 AM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	A lot can happen in 6 months. Anything other than a Obama vs Romney scenario is virtually impossible, one would think. So now is as good a time for a poll of tlites as any. I hope yet another poll is not going to get under anyone's skin. This is on all our minds. I vote yes. It could be close or it could be similar to 2008. I would predict the latter, but anything can still happen. As of today Obama seems to have a comfortable lead in some of the critical swing states, enough to win if it is close, but a surprise is always possible. A long way to go. Comments? If you think that a 269-269 tie is as likely as a victory either way, or that a repeat something like 2000, please put that in as a write in although I didn't think it necessary to include as an option, given how unlikely it is. Will Obama be reelected? (Result) yes no
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PeaceOverWar		#1	[-]
Posts: 8080 Apr 7 12 12:19 PM TL Original Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Not by much. I think the GOP has, by aiming for the reptilian vote, isolated a lot of folks. I'll be doing a hub on this in about a month.
copernicus1		#2	[-]
Posts: 6059 Apr 7 12 5:04 PM Godless Hierophant Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Right now, it is hard to see how Romney could beat Obama, but we don't even know who his VP will be. And we already know that he will be an "etch-a-sketch" candidate. That is, he will simply change his positions to swing back to the center as far as he thinks he can get without driving too much of his base away. After the convention, there will be a lot more support behind him for the general election, and a great many Americans have very short memories, in any case. So I do think that it will be closer than it looks now, but the Democrats have a lot of good material to throw at him. The election is theirs to lose. So how can they screw this up? I am confident that a great many Democrats will be working hard on a solution to that problem before November, but even their demonstrated skill at solving it may not do them any good. They will probably manage to lose the Senate and keep the House in control of Republicans, albeit by less of a majority.
Shadowmane2000		#3	[-]
Posts: 6431 Apr 7 12 5:53 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	The election is the Republicans' to loose. The Democrats have destroyed our economy, blocked a great deal of the good legislation coming out of the House. The Democrats won't get far on that "party of no" crap, when they haven't passed a budget in 3 years or more. They are out of ideas (if they even had any in the first place). No, they'll not win this election. They'll loose the Senate, and loose ground in the House, and of course, Obama will be sent home packing, where he belongs. Last Edited By: Shadowmane2000 Apr 7 12 5:56 PM. Edited 1 times.
greg1075	no doubt	#4	[-]
Posts: 2280 Apr 7 12 6:27 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	when the vote comes and people begin to remember how desperate the economy was when the Pubs left it...it is over. the rest it bs. G
Tindalus		#5	[-]
Posts: 2051 Apr 7 12 7:04 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	I have little doubt Obama will win. Paul Ryan' plan appears to be the only thing they have. A plan tat is estimated to cost millions of jobs sending us back into recession. Massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the rich. It further high lites how completely out of touch the republican party is from the mainstream America. Also to be honest Romney will lose big time in pretty much any debates. I have no doubt he is smart, but he can't relate to common people.
Shadowmane2000		#6	[-]
Posts: 6431 Apr 7 12 8:14 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	rotflmao... you think the Republicans are out of touch? Geez!!! The Democrats have done nothing but make things worse from the moment they took power in 2006. This economy belongs to the Democrats, lock, stock, and barrel.
Tindalus		#7	[-]
Posts: 2051 Apr 7 12 9:25 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Let's see, the economy was diving off a cliff with Bush. And we have had 25 months of growth moderated by all the jobs being dumped in government by the red state governors. Yep, they are completely out of touch. And that is ignoring all the social issues that the republican's are completely out of touch. Taxing the middle class more so they can give tax cuts for the rich...is out of touch. Privatizing medicare is out of touch Cutting funding to medicaid is completely out of touch. Yes, I can say safely that republican's are out of touch.
charvakan		#8	[-]
Posts: 24929 Apr 8 12 6:56 AM Bodhisattva Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	How anyone can confidently predict the results of this election today eludes me, unless it's just wishful thinking. It can't be either side's election to lose, because neither side controls the unemployment rate or whether Pakistan will have another coup or whether we're going to experience a terrorist attack (and by whom) in the US or any of a hundred other things this election may turn on. Obama has an edge now, but campaigns start with the conventions, because that's when voting Americans who are too dumb or uninformed or apathetic to know there's an election, or to have decided which way they'll vote, start paying attention. These "independents" look around, absorb some of the ads directed their way, and fewer than a million low-information voters in a couple swing states decide who our next President is. Flip a fucking coin.
greg1075	heads I win, tails you lose	#9	[-]
Posts: 2280 Apr 8 12 7:27 AM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	charvakan wrote: How anyone can confidently predict the results of this election today eludes me, unless it's just wishful thinking. It can't be either side's election to lose, because neither side controls the unemployment rate or whether Pakistan will have another coup or whether we're going to experience a terrorist attack (and by whom) in the US or any of a hundred other things this election may turn on. Obama has an edge now, but campaigns start with the conventions, because that's when voting Americans who are too dumb or uninformed or apathetic to know there's an election, or to have decided which way they'll vote, start paying attention. These "independents" look around, absorb some of the ads directed their way, and fewer than a million low-information voters in a couple swing states decide who our next President is. Flip a fucking coin. Wishful thinking? Moi? I think President Obama will have little problem when it comes down to painting the economy that was left to him. People were very scared. You don't have the environment today. Business ain't scared that's for damn sure. Dumb, apathetic, or not...they are not that dumb or that apathetic. IMO I know you have all these stats about unemployment, etc. If this for sure that? I don't buy it. Sure, unemployment will be a point of contention, but do you really think the Reps want to speak about unemployment? We can use my coin, okay?
Tindalus		#10	[-]
Posts: 2051 Apr 8 12 8:22 AM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Obviously I could be wrong, but we have had examples, NYC23, where republican's have lost in very red districts on Paul Ryan's. budget. Pardon the expression, but Obama has a load of amunition to use against Etcho sketch Romney. And quite frankly, Obama is very smart. We can see that in the first two years of his presidency, he made many mistakes allowing republicans to run over him. Since then, he has been far smarter in how he has dealt with the republican house. Also this president clearly is in touch with the people which is why he is so well liked. They want to believe him. With Romney, he encourages distrust.
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Shadowmane2000		#11	[-]
Posts: 6431 Apr 8 12 9:21 AM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Tin, you are fogetting about the truckload and more of ammunition the Republicans have on Obama. Unemployment, in reality, is hovering somewhere around 17-20%. Obama's business policy has done nothing but driven business even more into its turtle shell, not to come out until his joke of a Presidency is over. His energy policy has directly led to higher energy prices because he is directing the money to go where it should not go. He has not signed a budget in 3 years, because the Democrats in the Senate have failed to pass a budget since before he was elected President. This stimulus package was a giant flop, and has disappeared into a giant black hole. It stimulated nothing. Then there is the giant government over-reach that is Obamacare, which most likely has been shot down by the Supreme Court. Nothing this President has done outside of sitting in the Oval Office while bin Laden was killed by the Navy Seals, has been positive for this country. That is the picture that will be painted of this President, and that is the picture voters will vote on. He was only ever going to be a one term President.
copernicus1		#12	[-]
Posts: 6059 Apr 8 12 3:01 PM Godless Hierophant Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Shadowmane2000 wrote: ...Nothing this President has done outside of sitting in the Oval Office while bin Laden was killed by the Navy Seals, has been positive for this country... I know. He was just sitting in his office one day when someone came in, woke him up, and said that the Navy Seals had killed bin Laden. At first he thought they were talking about a tragic Sea World accident, but then he came fully awake and exclaimed: "Hot Diggity! Now I have something that I can use to bamboozle Americans into re-electing me!" Nobody knows who ordered those Seals to do it, but he is an opportunist and will take every advantage of the situation.
Tindalus		#13	[-]
Posts: 2051 Apr 8 12 5:08 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Obama's administration created 4 million jobs. far more than bush. And all Romney wants to do is repeat what bush did. No, republican's can't run on jobs created. Obama would love to have that argument. He would win.
Shadowmane2000		#14	[-]
Posts: 6431 Apr 8 12 7:33 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	They won't be running on jobs created, and that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about jobs lost. Grand total. Unemployment is not in the 8% range, its more along the lines of 18-20% range in reality. But Obama (and granted, any Republican in his place) will tweak the numbers to make it look like roses. But still, the jobless rate is higher now than it was when this President took office, and nothing he has done has alleviated that problem.
greg1075	unemployment	#15	[-]
Posts: 2280 Apr 8 12 7:45 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	its more along the lines of 18-20% range in Shad, you never mentioned the real number when Bush left office. I am sure you know, what was it? g
PeaceOverWar		#16	[-]
Posts: 8080 Apr 9 12 4:44 AM TL Original Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Greg: Shad's reptilian brain doesn't have that good of a memory
tomsingh		#17	[-]
Posts: 177 Apr 9 12 1:50 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	charvakan wrote: How anyone can confidently predict the results of this election today eludes me, unless it's just wishful thinking. It can't be either side's election to lose, because neither side controls the unemployment rate or whether Pakistan will have another coup or whether we're going to experience a terrorist attack (and by whom) in the US or any of a hundred other things this election may turn on. Obama has an edge now, but campaigns start with the conventions, because that's when voting Americans who are too dumb or uninformed or apathetic to know there's an election, or to have decided which way they'll vote, start paying attention. These "independents" look around, absorb some of the ads directed their way, and fewer than a million low-information voters in a couple swing states decide who our next President is. Flip a fucking coin. Do people tend to predict the result that will make them happy? That is part of the reason that so many here are predicting an Obama victory. Obama may have the advantage if the election is close, because that means Florida, Ohio and Virginia will be close. If Obama wins any of those three he will probably win the election. If all were 50/50 that means the odds are in his favor 8 to 1. Pretty strong odds, if you ask me. Not only that he wins even if he loses all three because he can win all the small swing states (single digit states) because that gives him 272 electoral votes. It is hard to come up with a scenario for Obama to lose unless things change a lot. Could the VP choice tip the scales the other way? Who knows?
tomsingh		#18	[-]
Posts: 177 Apr 9 12 1:56 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	In 2008 Obama did better in Virginia than he did in Ohio and Florida. He is way ahead in Virginia right now, I would expect him to win Virginia if the election is close. Virginia could make an Obama victory very likely, even though Ohio and Florida are better prizes.
PeaceOverWar		#19	[-]
Posts: 8080 Apr 9 12 2:33 PM TL Original Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Tom: Ohio should be easy. Labor beat back a Wisconsin-style attack on worker's rights.
tomsingh		#20	[-]
Posts: 177 Apr 9 12 5:04 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	PeaceOverWar wrote: Tom: Ohio should be easy. Labor beat back a Wisconsin-style attack on worker's rights. With Pennsylvania and New Mexico, which will be just as easy and probably more so, Obama gets 265 and one small state with 6-9 electoral votes he wins (Nevada, Iowa or Colorado), which probably won't be necessary because Ohio and Virginia (+PA) alone bring him to 273. He may or may not win Florida, but he will be competitive there. If he does, that state (+PA a virtual certainty) wins him the election. (271+)
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The election is 213 days from today.. poll ...

The election is 213 days from today.. poll ...

Will Obama be reelected? (Result)